Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Alert

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."